For consultants structuring a client problem
Issue Tree Template and Examples
A SMART key question, three levels of branches checked for overlaps and gaps, and a hypothesis with the analysis and data for every leaf.
| Leaf | Hypothesis | Analysis and data |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1.1 Deeper discounts to large accounts | Discounts to the top 20 accounts rose after a competitor arrived | Discount by account by quarter · invoice data, finance |
| 1.2.2 Lost supplier rebates | Buying by depot dropped us below rebate tiers | Rebates by supplier, before and after · supplier agreements |
| 2.1 Delivery costs | Two small depots run longer, emptier routes | Cost per drop by depot · fleet costs, route plans |
| 3.1 One-off charges | A stock write-down explains part of the fall | Margin bridge with one-offs shown · general ledger |
Checked: every cost sits in one branch, and the branches add back to the margin.
What you'll get
Key question, branches, hypotheses and data, plus six examples
- A SMART key question and three levels of branches
- A plain-words check for overlaps and gaps
- A hypothesis, analysis and data source for every leaf
Before and after
Your client's problem in. A first tree out.
Margins at our client, a regional food distributor, dropped from about 6% to just over 4% this year. Sales are still growing. The CFO thinks it's the new chain accounts. The board meets in March.
Key question: Why has operating margin fallen from about 6% to just over 4% in [period], while sales kept growing? Tree type: Diagnostic (why) 1. Are we earning less on each sale? 1.1 Are we selling at lower prices? 1.1.1 Have discounts to the new chain accounts deepened? Hypothesis: chain accounts get deeper discounts than other customers (the CFO's view, per your notes). Data: invoice-level sales by account (finance). To confirm with the client: exact margin figures and period; any one-off charges this year.
Brackets and the to-confirm list mark what only your client knows. River never fills them with guesses.
Why it works
What is an issue tree, and how do you build one?
An issue tree breaks one client question into smaller questions until each can be answered by a single piece of analysis. It starts from a key question in SMART form: specific, measurable, action-oriented, relevant and time-bound, a test from the McKinsey problem-solving approach as Umbrex sets it out. A diagnostic tree asks why something happened. A solution tree asks how to reach a goal. This template covers both, three levels deep, with a hypothesis and the data each leaf needs. A SWOT built from client files can show where to start.
The tree only works if its branches don't overlap and together cover the whole question. Consultants call this MECE, mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, an abbreviation Barbara Minto introduced at McKinsey. The template turns it into six plain checks, such as testing three real cases to see that each lands in exactly one leaf. Then every leaf gets a hypothesis, the result that would prove it wrong, the analysis, and the data with who holds it. That table becomes your workplan.
The examples doc works six invented client problems, among them falling margin, slow hiring and a new system that staff avoid, plus a broken tree and how to fix it. Paste your client's problem and River drafts a first tree in the template, with hypotheses marked as hypotheses and missing facts listed to confirm with the client. When the analysis is in, the pyramid principle template turns findings into a storyline, and interview synthesis handles the stakeholder interviews.
What lands in your doc
What's inside the issue tree template
- A SMART key question
One question with a five-part check, plus the context, what is off limits and what a good answer looks like. - Diagnostic or solution
A choice between a why tree that finds causes and a how tree that finds ways to reach a goal. - Three levels of branches
A numbered tree from the key question down to leaves small enough for one analysis, with four ways to split. - An overlap and gap check
MECE in plain words, as six checks to run at every level before any analysis starts. - Hypotheses, analyses and data
A table giving every leaf a hypothesis, what would prove it wrong, the analysis, the data and an owner, then what to do first. - Six worked examples
Falling margin, slow hiring, low adoption, revenue growth, energy costs and a yes-or-no decision, plus a broken tree fixed.
How it works
From client problem to workplan
Open the template
Click Edit with AI. The template opens in River with every section in place, next to the examples.
Paste the problem
Optional. Paste the client's problem or brief and tap a tree type, and River drafts the key question and a first tree.
Check the split
Run the overlap and gap checks, test three real cases, and redraw any branch that fails.
Plan the work
Fill in the hypothesis, analysis and data for each leaf, then have River turn the table into a workplan or a data request.
Questions consultants ask
Common questions
What is an issue tree, and how does it differ from a hypothesis tree?
An issue tree is a diagram that breaks one key question into smaller questions until one analysis can answer each. Its branches should not overlap and should together cover the question. A hypothesis tree uses statements to prove or disprove instead. The McKinsey approach as Umbrex describes it starts with an issue tree when the team knows too little to state hypotheses.
What does MECE mean in plain words?
Mutually exclusive means no overlaps: every cause, customer or cost belongs to exactly one branch. Collectively exhaustive means no gaps: answer every branch and you have answered the question. A quick test is to take three real cases, such as one order, one customer and one hire, and check that each lands in exactly one leaf.
Should I build a diagnostic or a solution tree?
Build a diagnostic tree when the client knows something is wrong but not why, such as falling margin or slow hiring. Build a solution tree when the goal is clear and the question is how to reach it. Many projects need both: the diagnostic tree finds the causes, and the solution tree starts from them.
How many levels should an issue tree have?
Usually three. Stop splitting when one analysis, done in days, could answer a leaf. If a leaf would still take weeks, split it again. If it needs no analysis at all, merge it with its neighbor. Most branches split into two to five parts; more than that often means two different splits are mixed together.
How do I turn an issue tree into a workplan?
Give each leaf a hypothesis, the result that would prove it wrong, an analysis, the data it needs and an owner with a date. McKinsey's seven-step process puts prioritizing before the workplan, so start with the branches that matter most and that the client can change. The hypothesis-driven workplan adds analyst-day budgets.
Will River make up facts about my client?
No. River builds the tree only from what you paste. Numbers, names and dates it doesn't have stay in brackets, and the facts the tree depends on go into a list to confirm with the client. Hypotheses are labeled as hypotheses, so nobody mistakes a guess for a finding.
Can I use it without an account?
Yes. The download gives you the template and the examples as Word files, with no account needed. Editing with AI works on River's Free plan, which includes some AI usage and needs no credit card. Under River's privacy policy, nothing you paste or upload is used to train AI models.
Your next step
More for your project
Structure the problem before the data arrives
Open the template with every section in place, or paste your client's problem to get a first tree to test.