Seasonal Cash Flow Plan Template
Four documents and four sheets that turn two or three years of bank history into the peak funding need and the draw plan behind it.
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A seasonal business does not have a cash flow problem. It has a calendar, and the calendar is already recorded, because the bank captured every receipt and every disbursement the last two or three times the season came round. The work is turning that record into a number a lender will act on. Each month becomes a share of its own year, so that growth stops reading as seasonality. The shares average into a twelve-month index, and the spread between the years is reported beside it.
The number most businesses quote is the worst month, and it is the wrong number. On the plan worked through this pack, February is the worst month at 504,042 negative. But February arrives at a business that already drained 381,129 in January, and March takes another 403,608 before the first receipts land. The trough of the accumulated deficit is March, at 993,779 below zero, so against a 150,000 minimum the peak funding need is 1,143,779. A line sized on February is short by 639,737 and runs dry mid-season.
The cushion is not guessed either. Rather than adding a round percentage for safety, the pack re-runs the months before the trough on the worst shape the history actually produced, which sizes it at 244,156 or 21.3 percent. The thirteen week cash forecast pack handles the inside of a quarter and the daily cash position pack handles this morning. This one handles the year, and it feeds the funding conversation.
What's in the pack
Seasonal Pattern by Month sheet
Three observed years, each month's share of its own year, the averaged index, and the spread in percentage points. Both index columns sum to 100 percent, which is the check that catches a missing month or a mis-totalled year.
Peak Funding Need sheet
The whole cumulative curve rather than a summary figure, so the trough is checkable, plus the worst-shape receipts and disbursements for each pre-trough month and the cushion they produce. Every month below the minimum is flagged.
Line of Credit Draw Plan
Draws in the increment the lender requires, sized to clear the minimum including that month's interest. Repayments come from season receipts rather than a redraw, and the schedule closes the year at zero outstanding.
Prior Year Actual vs Plan
The withheld-index backtest, splitting volume error from shape error so the index is only held responsible for the part it controls. Mean absolute monthly receipt error of 94,997, concentrated in the months already flagged volatile.
How the Index Is Derived
The four steps, with the partial-year exclusion and the transfer and loan-draw netting that quietly ruin an index built by hand. Folding last year's borrowing in makes this year's need look smaller than it is. How fast receipts land is partly a collections outcome, worked in the AR collections pack, and when disbursements leave is set by the AP process and payment run pack.
Seasonality Notes
What physically drives the shape, which months the dispersion says can be trusted, what changed since the history was written, and four observable triggers that force a rebuild. One trigger is a single customer passing fifteen percent of season receipts, which belongs in the customer credit policy pack instead.
Peak Funding Need
Why the trough and not the worst month, how the cushion is derived from observed dispersion, and the backtest that justifies it. Written so a challenged figure still has its arithmetic attached in month seven.
The Lender Conversation
The five artifacts to bring and the order to bring them in, plus the four questions that arrive every time with the figure that answers each. Ends by naming what it does not do, which is recommend a facility, a rate or a lender.
How it works
- 1
Send two or three years of bank history
Statements, CSV exports or a connected feed. River totals each completed year and shows the totals so you can check them against your own records. It names any partial year it excluded, and reports what it netted out as internal transfers or prior-year loan activity.
- 2
The index and its spread get derived
Each month becomes a share of its own year, the shares are averaged, and both index columns are confirmed to sum to 100 percent. The spread per month is computed alongside, and the gap between receipt and disbursement dispersion is reported as the finding rather than a footnote.
- 3
The trough and the cushion get sized
Your planned annual totals are spread on the index, the cumulative curve is built from opening cash, and the need is measured from the trough against your minimum balance. The pre-trough months are then re-run on the worst observed shape to size the cushion.
- 4
The draw plan and the backtest close it out
A month-by-month schedule that clears the minimum including interest, repays from season receipts, and closes at zero. Given three years, the index is rebuilt on the earlier two and tested against the year that has closed, so the cushion arrives with evidence attached.
Frequently asked questions
Why is the peak funding need so much larger than my worst month?
Because deficits accumulate. On the worked plan February is 504,042 negative, but it lands on a business that already spent 381,129 in January, and March takes 403,608 more before receipts arrive. The trough is 993,779 below zero, so the need is 1,143,779 rather than 504,042. The difference, 639,737, is the accumulation.
How many years of bank history do I actually need?
Two completed years produce an index. Three let you measure dispersion properly and run the backtest, which is what makes the cushion arguable. Partial years are excluded entirely: a year with eleven months has an inflated share in every month it does have, and averaging it in contaminates the whole index.
Is a three-year index enough to trust?
For the stable months, yes. On the worked history August through February all sit under 0.15 percentage points of spread. March, April and May carry 10.5 of the 13.6 points of total spread, and the pack marks them volatile rather than pretending the average is the truth. That is exactly what the cushion exists for.
Why compute the cushion from dispersion instead of adding a percentage?
Because a round percentage cannot be defended and the dispersion can. Re-running the pre-trough months on the worst shape the history produced gives 1,387,935 against a central 1,143,779, so the cushion is 21.3 percent for a stated reason. It is not a worst case, and nothing prevents a future year being worse.
Does the pack tell me which facility to get or what rate to expect?
No. It sizes a need, a cushion and a schedule, and the 9.25 percent used to compute interest is an illustrative sizing input rather than a quote. Which instrument fits, how it should be priced and whether to borrow at all are decisions for you and your advisers. The pack produces the analysis they work from.
What if my business changed since the history was written?
That goes in the Seasonality Notes as a named, dated override applied to the plan, with its own row, never by editing the index. A new location, a terms change or a lost anchor account invalidates the shape while leaving the arithmetic intact, and the index stays as the clean record.
What does a lender want to see, and when should I bring it?
Before the season, which is the whole point. Two things get assessed: whether the need is genuinely seasonal, and whether the line self-liquidates. Federal Reserve Regulation A frames seasonal credit around expected patterns of movement in funding needs, and the SBA CAPLines rule covers cyclical, recurring short-term operating capital needs. Both are pattern tests.
Arrange the borrowing before the season
Send the bank history and get the index, the trough, the cushion and the draw plan back with the arithmetic shown.
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