Verdict Rule · computed once the field closes, never before
Three verdicts, and only one needs no floor
| Verdict | Staked before send | Clears the floor | Observed result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Yes | Yes | Matches the prediction |
| Contradicted | Yes | Yes | Misses the prediction |
| Inconclusive | No, or | No | not evaluated |
A cut with no stake cannot confirm or contradict anything, however the rate reads. Both real verdicts require a prediction written down before the send, aimed at that exact segment.
A cut under the floor stays Inconclusive at any rate. A depot in the worked example agreed at 53.3%, which would have confirmed a company-wide prediction, and it ships Inconclusive because its 15 respondents sit under this pack's own floor.
Every row in the Segmented Results sheet carries its own respondent count, so the check is arithmetic, never a judgment call.