Win Back Email Campaign TemplateTrigger Schedule · one ratio, five calendar days
The same trigger, 208 days apart
| Band | Median gap | Customers | Fires day | vs 90 | Recovery then | Recovery day 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 19d | 3,680 | 27 | -63 | 43.1% | 3.6% |
| B | 34d | 6,072 | 48 | -42 | 41.8% | 16.7% |
| C | 58d | 4,600 | 81 | -9 | 40.9% | 28.3% |
| D | 94d | 2,576 | 132 | +42 | 39.6% | 71.4% |
| E | 168d | 1,472 | 235 | +145 | 38.2% | 84.2% |
| Weighted | 18,400 | 78.8 | -11.2 | 41.24% | 30.04% |
One trigger at ratio 1.4. Recovery at it holds within 4.9 points across every band.
Why day 90 survives every review
The weighted mean personal trigger day is 78.8, close enough to 90 that the fixed rule looks defensible in any summary anybody writes. The range underneath it is day 27 to day 235. Almost nobody sits at the mean, and the rule fails in opposite directions at the two ends at once.
The unit, and why it is not a day
Lapse ratio is days since the last order over that customer's own median inter-purchase interval. Bands D and E reach ratio 0.96 and 0.54 on day 90, so they are not late at all. Their unprompted 90-day reorder rates are 71.4% and 84.2%.
What the fast band costs
Band A crosses ratio 1.4 on day 27 and is mailed on day 90, by which point it sits at ratio 4.74 and recovers at 3.6%. That is a fifth of the base contacted 63 days after the cheap message would still have worked.
Every recovery figure is a base rate for the population reaching that ratio, not the effect of a message. Only the holdout in Offer Test Log turns one into an effect.