Caldera Fluid Systems v. Ostrander Pumps · Scenario Comparison
Every scope option, priced twice
Illustrative figures for a fictional commercial dispute. Ostrander is the responding party and pays for all of it.
| A. As requested | B. Nine custodians | C. Six custodians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Custodians and period | 14 over 72 mo | 9 over 40 mo | 6 over 26 mo |
| Documents in review | 1,021,240 | 572,340 | 347,240 |
| One-time | $1,280,289 | $720,869 | $440,458 |
| Per month, x31 | $131,874 | $99,138 | $83,111 |
| Total | $1,412,163 | $820,007 | $523,569 |
| Saving if it holds | baseline | $592,156 | $888,594 |
| Motion to defend it | none | $32,770 | $32,770 |
| Redo if it fails | none | $740,969 | $1,112,113 |
| Total if it fails | n/a | $1,593,746 | $1,668,452 |
| Breakeven probability | n/a | 24.5% | 23.0% |
Read the last row, not the saving row
Narrowing wins when B + M + (1 - p) x R is less than A, so the two paths are equal at p* = 1 - (A - B - M) / R. Above p*, narrow. Below it, do not.
The aggressive option has the lower breakeven, because it also saves more. That is the opposite of what everyone brings into the meeting, and it is invisible on a table that carries savings alone.
Every column but the last is arithmetic off the rate card and the volume index. The probability is the one judgement in the exercise, and the sheet leaves it blank until a lawyer writes it in.