Assumption Bridge
[Entity] — the identity that has to hold
On revenue, on gross margin, and on operating expense. Separately, and each one to zero.
| budget − actual | = | sum of the numbered assumptions |
Whatever is left over is the residual. It sits at the top of the sheet, in dollars and as a share of the change, until it is zero. It is not a contingency line and it is not a rounding allowance.
Every assumption carries these, or it is not an assumption
| Field | What goes in it |
|---|---|
| Number | Assigned once, kept for the life of the budget |
| Version | A revision keeps the number and gains a version |
| Quantity | The countable thing. Heads, accounts, pounds, stores |
| Rate | The per unit amount. Price, wage, premium, margin |
| Starts | The month the change begins. Not the year |
| Annual and phased | Both, where they differ. The bridge uses the phased one |
| Evidence class | One of four, below |
Four evidence classes
| Signed document | Contract, lease, amendment, notice. Name it |
| Measured from our own actuals | Name the period and the report |
| Third party quote or renewal | Name the counterparty and the date |
| Management judgement | No external evidence. Allowed, and disclosed |
The residual is read in both directions
| Positive | The budget holds dollars no assumption explains |
| Negative | The assumptions claim dollars the budget does not carry |
Most budget reviews only ever look for the first one. The second is where double counting and a full year cost against a phased plan both hide.