Cash Runway Scenario Analysis Template
Three documents and six sheets, where every trigger is the last month a decision can still be authorized in time to work.
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Trigger Dashboard
[Entity] — at 30 September 2026
16.5 months of runway. The last month the round can be authorized is February.
| Cash | 11,850,000 | Trailing 6-month net outflow | 718,845 |
| Covenant minimum, at all times | 1,000,000 | Quoted runway | 16.5 mo |
| Measured intra-month trough | 660,000 | Usable runway | 14.2 mo |
| Cash floor | 1,660,000 | Usable cash | 10,190,000 |
Three cases, each ending in a date
| Case | Systems revenue | Cash reaches the floor |
|---|---|---|
| Upside, best observed quarter | 1.23 of trend | not inside 24 months |
| Base, trend through 24 actuals | trend | January 2028 |
| Downside, worst observed quarter | 0.57 of trend | October 2027 |
Triggers, armed, in date order
| Decision | Authorize by | Days | Buys | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-1 | Raise the Series B | 28 Feb 2027 | 151 | all of it |
| T-2 | Reduce nine roles | 31 Jul 2027 | 304 | 3 months |
| T-4 | Stop the tooling programme | 31 Aug 2027 | 335 | 3 months |
| T-5 | Open a receivables facility | 31 Jul 2027 | 304 | 0 months |
| T-3 | Draw the remaining facility | 30 Sep 2027 | 365 | 1 month |
Each date is solved backwards from the October 2027 floor through that decision's own lead time and its own up-front cash cost. The convention everyone uses, act when runway falls under six months, does not fire until May 2027. That is three months after T-1 stopped being executable, because a runway number does not know how long a fix takes.
Page one for this query is 24-month models. Huggle's template builds assumptions, a monthly model, scenarios and a dashboard with a runway warning cell. Founderpath's seven tabs project burn, cash, runway and a break-even month across conservative, base and upside. Both are competent, and both answer the same question: how many months are left. Not one page on the query says how long a fix takes, so not one of them can name the month a decision has to be taken.
Here the answer is a date. Marchetti Robotics, an illustrative warehouse robotics company, holds 11,850,000 and burns 718,845 a month, which quotes as 16.5 months of runway. Its floor is 1,660,000, being a covenant minimum tested at all times plus the measured gap between a month-end balance and that month's intra-month low. Its downside is the worst rolling three months in 24 actuals, 42.8 percent under its own trend. The floor breaks in October 2027, and the Series B takes eight months.
So the trigger is 28 February 2027, solved backwards through that lead time and the cash the raise consumes before it closes. The six-month runway convention does not fire until May, three months after the round stopped being executable. Auditing standards test a plan by whether it is likely to be effectively implemented, and Regulation S-K asks anyone naming a liquidity deficiency to state the course of action beside it. The weekly version of this job is a thirteen week cash forecast.
What's in the pack
Trigger Dashboard sheet
One row per trigger. The decision it authorizes, the owner, the authorize-by date, the days remaining, the leading-indicator condition with its current reading, and the status. A trigger is the date or the condition, whichever arrives first.
Decision Register sheet
Every decision that could move the floor date, with the four measured properties that set its date. Lead to first cash and where that lead was measured, up-front cash and the month it leaves, the monthly effect once landed, and any one-off inflow.
Space rule
A trigger is a date, and the date is solved backwards. It fixes how the floor is built, that burn and both scenario factors are measured rather than chosen, and that an uncommitted source of cash is not runway. It governs every prompt here.
Base, Downside and Upside models
Three sheets, 24 forward months each, differing in exactly one input. Full cash statement per month with the floor and headroom on every row, ending in the month closing cash falls below the floor. That date is the output, not a month count.
Burn History sheet
Twenty-four actual months by line, with the rolling three-month ratio against trend on every row so both scenario factors are auditable rather than asserted. It carries the quoted runway and the usable runway side by side, and the gap between them.
Scenario Assumptions
Where every figure came from, one line each. The floor as two numbers that add up, the measured attach relationship, the committed purchase orders, the cost basis. Ends with what is deliberately in no case, so nobody assumes an unsigned pipeline was modelled.
Trigger and Decision Note
One record per decision, with the arithmetic behind its authorize-by date and the cost of postponing it. Includes the comparison against the six-month runway convention, and the month a late decision turns net negative. Refreshed after every close.
Runway Slide
One slide with speaker notes, generated from the four sheets rather than retyped. The same slide goes to the board and to the investor, because two versions of the runway is how a company loses the room. Pairs with the board package.
Four prompts, in dependency order
Set the floor, build the three cases, solve the authorize-by dates, refresh after the close. The last one re-solves every date against the new month and reports which ones moved, because a date that never moves is not being maintained.
How to use it
- 1
Download the files, or open the pack
Three Word documents and six CSV sheets, with no account. Or open the pack in River and hand it eighteen months of ledger plus every credit agreement. The ledger sets the burn and both scenario factors; the agreements set the floor and usually name at least one decision. Statements help too, since the intra-month trough has to be measured rather than guessed.
- 2
Set the floor before quoting anything
The covenant minimum and the measured trough, as two numbers that add up. It changes the answer before any scenario does, and it is the fastest part to establish. Where there is no agreement it is one payroll cycle plus undeferrable payables.
- 3
List the decisions, then solve the dates
Include the weak options. A decision worth one month belongs in the register precisely because somebody will otherwise call it three. Get a raise's lead time from your own last round, and severance from real terms rather than a rule of thumb.
- 4
Re-solve after every close
A bad month that becomes your new worst window moves every date earlier at once. Report which dates moved and by how many days, and retire anything past its date instead of quietly extending it.
Frequently asked questions
Is this template free?
Yes. Three Word documents and six CSV sheets, no account, no card, no trial. Edit with AI exists for anyone who would rather hand over a ledger and a credit agreement than fit a trend line and solve five dates by hand. The rest of the library is in free templates.
Why not just track months of runway?
Because a month count cannot be acted on. It is cash over burn, and it has no term for how long a fix takes, so a threshold on it fires after the fix has expired. In the worked example the six-month convention fires three months after the last month the round could have been authorized.
How is the authorize-by date actually calculated?
By running the downside cash path with the decision applied in each candidate month in turn. The date is the latest month where closing cash stays at or above the floor from now through the month that decision's own cash effect lands. The downside is not a chosen percentage; it is the worst rolling three months in your own 24 actuals.
Why is the floor not zero?
Because you stop at the highest of your binding constraints. Here that is a covenant minimum tested at all times plus the largest measured gap between a month-end balance and that month's intra-month low. In the example that is 1,660,000, which removes 2.3 months from the quoted figure.
How is this different from a thirteen week cash forecast?
Horizon and question. A thirteen week forecast works weekly on receipts and disbursements and asks whether payroll clears. This works monthly over two years and asks by when a structural decision has to be authorized. Run both; they answer to different people.
Where does the actual cost reduction get built?
Not here. This register holds one line with a measured up-front cost and a monthly effect. Building the candidate list, reading contracts for notice periods and separating in-year cash from run rate is the cost reduction plan tool. Covenant headroom by test date is its own forecast.
Does this replace the reforecast decision?
No, and the two triggers are different animals. Reforecast triggers decide whether this month's miss warrants rebuilding the plan. These decide by when an action has to be authorized to still work. A month can trip one and not the other.
Turn the runway number into a date
Download the blank pack as Word and CSV files, or open this exact pack in River and let it set the floor, measure both scenario factors from your own history and solve every authorize-by date.
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