Signal Weights
Illustrative rows for a fictional B2B software company, Halfmoon Software. 412 accounts, 47 churn events over four quarters, base churn rate 11.4%. Lift is the churn rate when the signal fires, divided by that base rate.
| Signal | Assumed weight | Fired on | Churn rate when fired | Lift | Median lead time | Coverage | Verdict | Earned weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open tickets above 3x the account's own baseline | 15% | 44 | 47.7% | 4.18 | 11 days | 100% | Real discrimination, no time to act | 0% |
| Invoice paid more than 15 days after the due date | 15% | 31 | 41.9% | 3.68 | 6 days | 100% | Fires after the decision, not before | 0% |
| Named executive sponsor no login in 30 days | 15% | 63 | 30.2% | 2.64 | 74 days | 70.1% | Keep, once the sponsor field was backfilled | 38% |
| Weekly active users down 25% over 8 weeks | 25% | 88 | 27.3% | 2.39 | 96 days | 100% | Keep, second strongest of the survivors | 35% |
| Fewer than 3 of the 8 core actions used in 30 days | 20% | 121 | 21.5% | 1.88 | 141 days | 100% | Keep, weakest and earliest by a wide margin | 27% |
| Satisfaction average below 4.0 | 10% | 29 | 17.2% | 1.51 | 38 days | 14.8% | Fails all three bars at once | 0% |
| Provisioned seats below 60% of contracted seats | n/a | 96 | 22.9% | 2.01 | 118 days | 100% | Candidate, held one quarter before weighting | pending |
| Survey score below 7 | n/a | 18 | 16.7% | 1.46 | 52 days | 8.5% | Rejected before weighting on coverage | 0% |
The two rows the workshop weighted on instinct are the two rows with the highest lift and the shortest lead time. Cutting them released 40 points of weight, which the three survivors absorbed in proportion to the lift they earned: 2.64, 2.39 and 1.88 sum to 6.92, giving 38%, 35% and 27%.